11 April 2005

Other Published Models of Solar PV

ExxonMobil published a brief model. On page 16, they state that they expect Solar and Wind electricity production in the US to grow by about 9% a year from 2004 through 2020.

The ExxonMobil model agrees with the EIA model. The EIA states that grid-connected solar will grow from about 500MW in 2003 to 2700MW in 2025. The EIA documents its assumptions . It has separate assumptions for central power plants (described in the renewable fuels modules) and distributed generation. Assumptions for residences are described on about page 21.

The EIA assumes that prices will drop 13% with each doubling of demand. I assume a drop of 20%. Additionally, the EIA does not consider learning that may occur when solar modules are delivered to foreign countries. Finally, the EIA probably assumes lower fuel prices than I assume.