04 February 2016

Making Predictions about the Future

In March 2005 I outlined a growth scenario for photovoltaics in the U.S. and compared my comparison to the EIA's.  I predicted 10Gkwh of PV electricity in 2014 and stated that the EIA claimed 4Gkwh of PV electricity in 2025.  I was wondering how good my prediction had been, so I went and looked at the AEO 2015 and AEO 2005.

PV generation (GKwh, estimated)
AEO 2015
      EPS         EUG    Total
2012  3.30        7.97   11.27
2013  7.98        9.62   17.60
2014 15.19       11.39   26.58
2015 19.68       13.47   33.47
2025 30.28       24.77   55.05
2040 47.14       59.33  106.47

AEO 2005
      EPS         EUG    Total
2012  0.39       0.86    1.25
2013  0.43       0.88    1.31
2014  0.48       0.89    1.37

2015  0.23       0.95    1.18
2025  0.96       3.74    4.70

Gosh, my silly little economic model was about 12% below end-user segment generation, and 62% below total on-grid PV generation.  The EIA was 95% below total generation?  Of course, the EIA made their predictions a few months before I made mine.  And no doubt changes to state and federal policies completely explain the discrepancies in their predictions.


0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home